KASI consumer-sentiment index sunk by a further 7 points to -28, in April amid continued fears of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic in Africa
The drop in consumer sentiment was led by a decrease in both the current-economic condition index and the consumer-expectations index by 14 and 4 points respectively.
Nigeria experienced the largest decline in its consumer sentiment index which fell by 48 points from 21 to -27. Ivory Coast’s consumer sentiment index remained stable at 8 points.
During the month of April, Africa recorded its first cases, and the virus quickly spread to 54 countries. As of May 17, the continent has over 84,000 cases up from 18,000 cases in April and 2771 deaths according to the latest tally by Africa CDC.
Nigeria experienced the largest decline in its consumer sentiment index which fell by 48 points from 21 to -27.
The drop in consumer sentiment was led by a decrease in both the current-economic condition index and the consumer-expectations index by 14 and 4 points respectively. Nigeria experienced the largest decline in its consumer sentiment index which fell by 48 points from 21 to -27. This drop was primarily driven by the decrease in the consumer-expectations index which fell by 56 points in comparison to the current economic conditions index which fell by 30 points. The drastic decline in oil prices has had a negative impact on the Nigerian economy as receipts from its oil-production have fallen and this will certainly affect the country’s GDP. New nationwide measures to combat the spreading of the virus have also negatively affected consumer expectations and current economic conditions.
Ghana recorded a rise of 29 points in its consumer sentiment in April albeit not to levels seen earlier this year in January and February.
Ghana recorded a rise of 29 points in its consumer sentiment in April albeit not to levels seen earlier this year in January and February. Similarly, the rise in its index can be primarily attributed to the rise in the consumer-expectations index which increased by 36 points whereas the current-economic conditions index rose by only 10 points. Starting April 23rd, the partial lockdown of urban centers was lifted following aggressive contact tracing, enhanced health capacity with the increased availability of kits, treatment and isolation centers, and a better understanding of the virus contagion dynamics. This has led to optimism amongst Ghanaians on the future of their economy.
Ivory Coast’s consumer sentiment index remained stable at 8 points.
Ivory Coast’s consumer sentiment index remained stable at 8 points. The remainder of the countries witnessed a fall in their consumer sentiment by the range of -1 to -7. Consumers continue to have grave concerns on the impact of Covid-19 on the socio-economic conditions in the African continent. KASI’s Covid-19 overall fear index which ranks the concern levels of individuals on a scale of 1 (less concerned) to 5 (very concerned) shows that 68.37% of the respondents responded with either a 4 or 5 suggesting that they are indeed deep concerns.
"It's too early to say if consumer sentiment has hit the bottom, the number of cases of coronavirus in Africa is still increasing and we will have to wait for some Q2 data to find out the full extent of the damage to the economies and consumers " said Davies Nyachienga, Junior economist at KASI.
About the methodology
KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-question survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on a fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64. Released the first week of every month, KASI CCI provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated.
For each question, the final metric will be a ‘balance measure’ of the percentage of positive responses minus the percentage of negative responses. The overall metric will be an average across all the questions. April 2020 data were collected from 04/24 to 05/09, 2020.
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