KASI CCI unchanged in December
Current economic conditions improved, though still negative
Future economic expectations down due to worsening personal finances
The unchanged consumer confidence index level from November may be regarded encouraging in light of persistently falling index values from subsequent months. 2 out of the 7 countries recorded a rise in consumer confidence index, 3 out of 7 countries recorded an unchanged confidence while Ghana’s index significantly dropped by -16 to -8, a value in very close range to it's all-time record low of -14 recorded in July 2016.
Current economic conditions driven by better job prospects, though still negative
For the month of December, a +5 point increase was recorded for consumer’s appraisal of current economic conditions. The sub-index was -12 in December and driven by better job prospects. In fact, the job prospect metric improved 22 points from -40 to -28. The holidays season involving an increased number of activities may explain the improvement.
Future economic expectations driven down by anticipations of worsening personal finances
Future economic expectations driven down by anticipations of worsening personal finances
The future economic expectation sub-metric dropped 2 points to +15 driven by an expectation of a worsening in personal finance. The sub-metric dropped 5 points to +17. This is not surprising considering that spending generally increases over the holiday season, and drops soon after as people attempt to recover from over-spending, especially in January.
Consumer confidence dropped in 2018
KASI Consumer confidence stood at +12 in January and ended the year at +7, a 5 points drop overall. While current economic conditions remained flat at -12, we witnessed higher volatility and a drop of 7 points when it comes to future economic expectations. Out of the 7 countries we track, Ghana saw the largest drop followed by Kenya and Tanzania. Ghana began the year on a positive trajectory with confidence at +26, the highest of the 7 countries we track. During the year, confidence was driven down by a banking crisis, high inflation and mounting pressure towards the government from citizens to urgently address housing and healthcare challenges. It is not surprising that the IMF that had initially estimated GDP growth of 6.8% revised their estimate to 6.3% in October.
Forthcoming consumer data releases:
February 15th: KASI CCI (January data)
Esther Bosha, Junior economist, KASI Insight
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The KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-questions survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64.
Released the first week of every month, the KASI Consumer Confidence Index (KASI CCI) provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated. The survey provides a simple measure of consumers’ optimism about their economic prospects in the near term and attitude towards making major purchasing decisions.
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