KEY FINDINGS
KASI CCI declined by 1 point in November
Spending and job security prospects remotely change
Continued anticipation of deteriorating personal finances drives down expectations
It appears that the year will end at a low note given the continued fall in consumer confidence index experienced in this final quarter. The month of November saw another 1 point drop in the consumer confidence index with Ghana and Kenya recording the highest drops of -17 and -9 respectively. Out of the seven countries, only Ivory Coast and Cameroon recorded an increase in their confidence index of +2 and +10 respectively. The notable improvement in the consumer confidence in Cameroon indicates recovery of stability after a tension-hyped election period.
Consumer confidence dropped again in November
Spending and Job security continue to dampen short-term outlook
Consumers’ appraisal of current economic conditions dropped from -14 to -17 in the month of October and expectations slightly declined by -1 point leading to a score of +17.
Personal finance deteriorates
The share of consumers that expect an increase in household income over the 6 months declined minutely by 1 percentage point to 33 percent while the number of consumers expecting to meet their regular expenses in the same time frame also declined by 3 percent to 22 percent.
Slow growth in the last quarter
In this final quarter of the year, economic growth levels have not generated positivity about future prospects to a larger extent. For countries such as Nigeria, the hike in food prices is likely to result in drastic falls in the consumer confidence index if not addressed timeously and effectively. Tanzania and Ghana indexes have dramatically deteriorated in a very short space of time. In the case of Tanzania, this is likely a result of the approaching election period which generally arouses uncertainty about the economy’s current and future performance. In other countries such as South Africa, growth has been high enough to pull the country out of recession but not substantial enough to revive the underlying economy.
Forthcoming consumer data releases:
January 15th: KASI CCI (December data)
Esther Bosha, Junior economist, KASI Insight
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The KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-questions survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64.
Released the first week of every month, the KASI Consumer Confidence Index (KASI CCI) provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated. The survey provides a simple measure of consumers’ optimism about their economic prospects in the near term and attitude towards making major purchasing decisions.
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