KEY FINDINGS
KASI CCI declined by 2 points in October
Inflation and shrinking purchasing power cloud short-term outlook
Post-elections jitters in Cameroon & recent events in Tanzania drive down expectations
Though a continuation in the upward trend of the global consumer confidence index score was more favorable, the month of October was generally characterized by a fall in consumer confidence index for the individual countries. Thus the global index recorded a 2 point decline in the confidence index. The exception is Kenya that recorded a notable +14 point increase to +11. Kenya attained its fastest growth pace in the agricultural sector over the last two years, at the close of September alongside growth in other industries such as infrastructure development.
Consumer confidence dropped again in October
Spending and Job security continue to dampen short-term outlook
Consumers’ evaluation of prevailing economic conditions declined to -14 from a score of -11 while expectations took a 1 point drop to +18.
Personal finance deteriorates
A 3 percentage point decline to 34 percent is recorded for consumers that expect an increase in their household income over the next 6 months, while the share of consumers that maintain their ability to meet regular expenses in the next 6 months remained steady at 25 percent.
So far in 2018, Africa economies are not rising
Since January 2018, only 2 out of 7 countries have witnessed an improvement in consumer confidence (Kenya and Tanzania). For the rest, elections, inflationary policies and uncertainty about people finance and job security have dampened confidence this year. As we are heading into the fourth quarter of 2018, the global index is down 4 percent and for Africans, the continent is not rising. At least as of October 2018.
Forthcoming consumer data releases:
December 15th: KASI CCI (November data)
Esther Bosha, Junior economist, KASI Insight
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The KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-questions survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64.
Released the first week of every month, the KASI Consumer Confidence Index (KASI CCI) provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated. The survey provides a simple measure of consumers’ optimism about their economic prospects in the near term and attitude towards making major purchasing decisions.
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