KEY FINDINGS
KASI CCI growth slows in September
Spending and job security continues to dampen short-term outlook
Elections in Cameroon & inflationary policies in Kenya drive down expectations
Across the 7 countries, a +1 point increase was recorded for the month of September, leading to a score of +10. Out of the 5 countries that experienced positive growth in consumer confidence, Tanzania had the most significant growth of +12 points to a new level of +10, closely followed by Nigeria with a +11 point increase to +28. On the other hand, Cameroon and Kenya experienced a fall in consumer confidence for the month of September. Cameroon recorded a 7-point fall from the August Score of +13, while the fall in consumer confidence in Kenya was large enough (9-point fall) to land Kenya in the negative region of the consumer confidence index i.e. at -3.
Consumer confidence dampened by elections and inflation
Job security continues to dampen short-term outlook
Consumers’ evaluation of current economic conditions remain negative at -11 while expectations rose by 1 point to +19. As in the subsequent months, Ghana maintains the highest percentage of individuals with expectations of an improvement of the current economic disposition. In fact, the number of optimistic individuals increased from 75 percent to 81 percent in September, which may be suggesting recovery from unfavorable circumstances of increased crude oil prices accompanied by a weakening currency.
Personal finance improves slightly
Consumers' appraisal of household income improved in September. 37 percent of consumers expect an increase in their household income over the next 6 months. The 1 percent increase to 25 percent of individuals that anticipate their ability to meet their regular expenses indicates a slight improvement in consumers' appraisal of their personal finance.
Elections in Cameroon and inflationary policies in Kenya drive down expectations
The falling consumer confidence index in Cameroon is likely emanating from the political/civil unrest that looms over the country. As per our August prediction, the 5-point rise was short-lived and an anticipated drop happened in September ahead of the presidential election. The introduction of new taxes which Kenyan citizens believe to be going into non-public but rather private individual’s coffers has had the impact of dampening a positive outlook. The future will tell the credibility of these policy changes.
Forthcoming consumer data releases:
November 15th: KASI CCI (October data)
Esther Bosha, Junior economist, KASI Insight
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The KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-questions survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64.
Released the first week of every month, the KASI Consumer Confidence Index (KASI CCI) provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated. The survey provides a simple measure of consumers’ optimism about their economic prospects in the near term and attitude towards making major purchasing decisions.
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