Due to subsidies reaching beneficiaries and recovery rates rising increasingly, Ghanaians are beginning to show more optimism.
Confidence in Job prospects continues trending upward with the lockdown lifting, and more policies are launched to stimulate the job market.
Retail performance is in an exceptionally volatile year due to the fundamental changes in consumer behaviors.
In July, KASI Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for Ghana saw a slight increase by 10 points from -27 to -17. This has been driven by the growth of sub-indexes related to future expectations (ICE) and current conditions (ICC), which have respectively increased by 35 points and 37 points since March.
Due to subsidies reaching beneficiaries and recovery rates rising increasingly, Ghanaians are beginning to show more optimism.
Even though all the indexes show the negative levels, Ghanaians are beginning to show more optimism about the future of the country despite the ongoing uncertainty of COVID-19. After three months’ implementation of electricity and water subsidy to lifeline customers, based on the survey from Energy Institute At Haas, 90% of respondents who report that they have received the subsidy believe that the government is doing at least doing responsible jobs. These subsidies for critical goods can be a timely and effective mechanism for distributing funds to citizens, which can truly boost Ghanaians’ confidence in the current condition.
Currently, Ghana continues to see an increase in the number of positive cases on a daily basis. The country recorded 18134 cases at the end of July, a surge from 8070 cases on Jun 1. While the number of positive cases is rising, recovery rates are also on the rise. According to the Ghana Health Service, as of Aug 18, approximately 95% of infected patients have recovered. What’s more, the Finance Minister has extended the electricity and water subsidies for another three months for all domestic and commercial customers in Ghana. Such subsidies reaching beneficiaries and recovery rates increasingly rising can be one major reason for the growth of the future expectations Index.
Confidence in Job prospects continues trending upward with the lockdown lifting, and more policies are launched to stimulate the job market.
Ghana was the first African country to lift its lockdown, and more people have returned to their jobs as economies re-opened and activity picked up. Also, since the CAP-BuSS of GH¢600 million was designed and launched to specifically support micro, small and medium-sized enterprises in late May, Ghanaians are feeling more confident in their job prospect as the sub-index continued to increase in the recent two months from -93 on May 1 to -76 on Jul 1, which is far closer to the pre-pandemic level.
The KASI COVID Pulse Survey revealed that the percentage of people who think finding a job becomes more difficult has slightly decreased by 8 percent in July. On Jul 23, Ghana’s Finance Minister Ken Ofori-Atta announced that Ghana would establish a retraining program and a national unemployment insurance scheme to rebuild the resilience in the labor market going forward. Therefore, customers’ confidence in job security and prospects, and the future expectations index is likely to continue to climb in the next several months.
Retail performance is in an exceptionally volatile year due to the fundamental changes in consumer behaviors.
The swiftness and severity of the COVID-19 pandemic—and the ongoing uncertainty around how long countries will need to maintain the restrictions in place to combat the disease—seems to have changed the purchasing priorities of Ghanaian consumers. Based on the Kasi COVID Pulse data from Ghana, it shows that 35% of respondents consider earning more money be the priority, followed by staying healthy and saving, budgeting, and cutting down expenses. Self-imposed isolation affected consumers’ life budget and depressed consumer demand for all but essentials. With the positive cases increasing, the implication is clear that retail spending will contract dramatically in Q2 2020.
The easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Ghana will play a role once containment efforts are lifted, and consumer confidence returns. Many purchases are being put off at this time, so when containment is lifted, there will be considerable pent-up demand, and a strong rebound will occur. However, the rebound will be tempered by the extent to which employment is depressed during the crisis. The silver lining is that governments and central banks have acted quickly, aggressively, and in a coordinated manner to do all they can to limit the economic weakness. Nevertheless, retail performance is likely to be in an exceptionally volatile year, and non-essential retailers will be on the front line of this contraction.
By Heather Yan, Economic Intelligence Group at KASI.
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About the methodology
KASI Consumer Confidence Score (KASI CCI) is a composite index compiled from a seven-question survey that runs monthly via our consumer polls in the countries covered. The data output is based on a fresh, randomly selected representative sample of city dwellers aged 18-64. Released the first week of every month, KASI CCI provides a focused view on consumer perceptions in seven African urban centers (Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, South Africa, Cameroon, Ivory Coast, Tanzania) where most spending in the continent is concentrated.
For each question, the final metric will be a ‘balance measure’ of the percentage of positive responses minus the percentage of negative responses. The overall metric will be an average across all the questions.
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