Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) is a crucial economic indicator that provides insights into consumer sentiment and spending patterns. It is a measure of how optimistic or pessimistic consumers are about the future of the economy.
This paper aims to compare the CCI data from Kasi Insight and the BER South Africa CCI, published by the Bureau for Economic Research from 2019 to 2022. We will examine the methodology, data sources, and key findings of both indices, shedding light on the similarities, differences, and implications for understanding consumer confidence in South Africa.
Methodology
The CCI data from Kasi Insight and the BER South Africa CCI are derived from surveys conducted among representative samples of consumers. Both sources employ different methodologies to measure consumer confidence, including survey questions related to economic conditions, personal finances, and future spending intentions. The data from both sources are aggregated and reported as an index.
The BER South Africa CCI is a quarterly index, based on a survey of 2000 urban dwellers while the Kasi Insight CCI is a monthly index, based on a survey of 500 urban dwellers.
The two indices have slightly different methodologies, but they both measure the same thing: consumer confidence. The BER South Africa CCI measures consumer confidence based on three factors:
• Expectations about future personal financial situation
• Expectations about future general economic conditions
• Current assessment of the general economic situation
The Kasi Insight CCI measures consumer confidence based on four factors:
• Expectations about future personal financial situation
• Expectations about future general economic conditions
• Current assessment of the general economic situation
• Current assessment of household finances
Comparing quarterly readings between BER and Kasi
To make the two indices comparable despite being calculated at different
frequencies, Kasi Insight applies a quarterisation technique, which involves
averaging the three most recent monthly indices.
As shown, the two indices have tracked each other closely over the past four
years. However, there have been some periods when the two indices have
diverged. For example, the Kasi CCI fell more sharply than the BER South Africa
CCI during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Comparing monthly and quarterly readings between BER and Kasi
By analyzing data trends monthly, Kasi Insight gains increased granularity and
a more detailed understanding of consumer behaviour and market dynamics.
This allows them to identify shorter-term patterns, fluctuations, and seasonal
variations that may be missed by BER's quarterly approach.
Conclusion
With a more frequent analysis, Kasi Insight detects emerging trends earlier,
enabling businesses to react swiftly to market shifts and adjust their strategies
accordingly. The monthly CCI provides a more up-to-date perspective,
facilitating agile decision-making and ensuring businesses have the most
current information available. Additionally, the increased frequency of data
points enhances the accuracy of Kasi Insight's forecasting models, enabling
more reliable predictions and projections.
Overall, Kasi Insight's monthly CCI enables businesses to have a competitive
edge in understanding consumer sentiment, making informed decisions, and
staying ahead of the curve.
Contact our team today to explore how our Economic Intelligence can empower your decision-making process. Win with confidence with Kasi insights: https://www.kasiinsight.com/thehub
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